Thursday 1 September 2022 06:40 PM Turkey may yet prove to be the big winner of the Ukraine war, writes ERBIL ... trends now
It is often said that there are no winners in war. But the old cliché fails to take into account non-combatants who find their international position has strengthened through the conflict.
China, for example, might well secure advantageous oil and gas contracts from Moscow in return for the invasion of Ukraine.
But the most significant winner could yet to prove to be Turkey, which has already proved its status as a regional powerbroker by securing a deal with the Kremlin to allow the export of millions of tons of Ukrainian grain - thus averting a major global food crisis.
But there is more to it than that.
Turkey, of course, sits at a crucial geopolitical crossroads. It has one foot in Europe and the other in Asia. It controls the Bosphorus, gateway to the Black Sea, it sits astride the oil and gas pipelines from central Asia that may yet prove to be Europe's saviour in the coming winter without Russian gas.
It is a major food exporter, a member of NATO and while it sits outside the European Union, Turkey is part of the EU Customs Union, which has been credited with accelerating the development of its industrial sector as European manufacturers seek to lower production costs without attracting tariffs and international red tape.
There is also a human bargaining chip. Turkey is the gateway to Europe for tens of millions of migrants who want to abandon their homes in Africa and the Indian subcontinent and try their luck in Europe.
The last time Ankara opened the floodgates, in 2015, caused political mayhem across Europe, sparking speculation that a refugee crisis could bring an end to the EU itself. The resulting deal saw the EU pay Turkey billions of Euros to close its borders and stop the flood of migrants to Europe. But there were many disagreements between parties.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, middle, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, left, and United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres shake hands after their meeting in Lviv, Ukraine, last month
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has shown he is a tough deal-maker who will be keen to preserve his country's traditional role of promoting Turkey's interests, while keeping both Moscow and the Western World if not happy, then grudgingly content.
Thus Turkey is happy to supply its Bayraktar drones to the Ukrainian armed forces and refuses to permit Russian warships to sail through the Bosphorus to reinforce Putin's ailing Black Sea Fleet while at the same time President Erdoğan meets with Vladimir Putin in Sochi.
The most visible outcome of that mini-summit was the agreement to ship Ukrainian grain, a public relations coup which allowed Russia to be seen as acting in the best interests of the international community.
But the real subject of their backroom negotiations will undoubtedly have been oil and gas - the vital issue that will also bring President Erdoğan's moment of maximum leverage with the European Union in the coming winter months.
Both Moscow and the big industrial economies of Europe that have become reliant on cheap Russian oil are after one thing: access to the network of pipelines that link the oil and gas fields of the middle East, central Asia and, indeed, Russia with the
