Wednesday 2 November 2022 10:52 PM IAN BIRRELL explains why Ukraine is now hellbent on retaking Crimea - despite ... trends now

Wednesday 2 November 2022 10:52 PM IAN BIRRELL explains why Ukraine is now hellbent on retaking Crimea - despite ... trends now
Wednesday 2 November 2022 10:52 PM IAN BIRRELL explains why Ukraine is now hellbent on retaking Crimea - despite ... trends now

Wednesday 2 November 2022 10:52 PM IAN BIRRELL explains why Ukraine is now hellbent on retaking Crimea - despite ... trends now

For Ukrainians, the situation is clear. Vladimir Putin’s torture of their country through invasion started eight years ago when ‘little green men’ suddenly began blocking roads, building checkpoints and seizing government buildings in Crimea.

These were Putin’s special forces, in unmarked uniforms and vehicles.

They grabbed the precious peninsula for the Kremlin — and began a war that exploded into bloodshed, carnage and devastation across their land this year.

‘Everything started with Crimea and will end with it,’ declared President Volodymyr Zelensky two months ago. ‘Crimea stands with Ukraine and is waiting for us to return. I want you all to know, we will definitely be back.’

Bold words from a brave leader, spoken shortly before his forces made a stunning breakthrough in eastern Ukraine that dramatically changed the narrative of this dispiriting war.

Now Ukraine is advancing towards that goal of liberating Crimea, the ultimate prize in this cruellest of conflicts.

‘Everything started with Crimea and will end with it,’ declared President Volodymyr Zelensky two months ago

‘Everything started with Crimea and will end with it,’ declared President Volodymyr Zelensky two months ago

Black smoke billows from a fire on the Kerch bridge that links Crimea to Russia on October 8

Black smoke billows from a fire on the Kerch bridge that links Crimea to Russia on October 8

A Yars intercontinental ballistic missile is test-fired as part of Russia's nuclear drills from a launch site in Plesetsk

A Yars intercontinental ballistic missile is test-fired as part of Russia's nuclear drills from a launch site in Plesetsk

Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a Security Council meeting via videoconference in the Black Sea resort of Sochi on Wednesday

Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a Security Council meeting via videoconference in the Black Sea resort of Sochi on Wednesday

Part of the destroyed Orthodox Sviatohirsk Cave Monastery (Holy Mountains Lavra of the Holy Dormition) in Svyatohirsk, Donetsk region, pictured on Wednesday

Part of the destroyed Orthodox Sviatohirsk Cave Monastery (Holy Mountains Lavra of the Holy Dormition) in Svyatohirsk, Donetsk region, pictured on Wednesday

Its forces are moving forward in the key southern region that supplies the peninsula’s water, mounting daring raids on military sites across the area — and sparking fears. which escalate with each mile of advance, that Moscow might respond with the use of nuclear weapons.

For the 2014 annexation may have been illegal but it was wildly popular in Russia. It was a defining moment for Putin, supposedly fulfilling his pledge to restore his nation’s greatness after the collapse of the Soviet empire.

The seizure caused Putin’s support to surge to record levels as he claimed: ‘Crimea has always been an integral part of Russia in the hearts and minds of people.’ He talks about it in mystical terms, describing it as a ‘sacred place’ and their ‘holy land’.

This is the dictator, after all, who has posed as a successor to the great Russian Tsars such as Peter the Great — who launched his nation’s imperial expansion with a battle in central Ukraine at the start of the 18th century — and Catherine the Great, who captured Crimea in 1783.

Putin’s brazen theft of Crimea underscored his own propaganda by expanding Russia’s terrain. Now he claims to be the strongman standing up for his people, absurdly proclaiming that he will protect them from ‘Nazis’ in Ukraine and Nato.

Yet Kyiv thinks it can win back Crimea by next summer as its forces advance. And, after doing so, it intends to order hundreds of thousands of Russians to leave immediately, ratcheting up the stakes.

Tamila Tasheva, President Zelensky’s adviser on Crimea, told me up to 800,000 Russians had entered their land without permission. ‘According to our law and international law, if people cross the border illegally they need to be deported.’

Ukraine is also drawing up plans to review all property deals and court decisions made under Russian occupation to ensure their citizens have not had homes stolen, assets seized or been treated unfairly by courts under the Kremlin’s repressive system.

But can the country really retake Crimea — that lush slab of land beneath Ukraine in the Black Sea; the long-standing base for Russia’s navy, home to more than two million people and such a crucial prop for the carefully constructed narrative of Putin’s regime?

And what will happen if Kyiv recaptures the city of Kherson —administrative capital of the region that controls Crimea’s water supply — and then moves on towards the peninsula?

A Ukrainian soldier stands with an anti drone gun outside Mykolaiv during the counter-offensive on Wednesday

A Ukrainian soldier stands with an anti drone gun outside Mykolaiv during the counter-offensive on Wednesday

Ukraine is advancing towards the goal of liberating Crimea, the ultimate prize in this cruellest of conflicts

Ukraine is advancing towards the goal of liberating Crimea, the ultimate prize in this cruellest of conflicts

Ukrainian servicemen fire a self-propelled howitzer toward Russian positions on a frontline in the Mykolaiv region

Ukrainian servicemen fire a self-propelled howitzer toward Russian positions on a frontline in the Mykolaiv region

Could this be the trigger for a nuclear conflagration?

Certainly Ukraine’s leaders are well aware of the huge risks as their forces advance through the Belgium-sized region of Kherson, carving through the ‘fresh meat’ of poorly equipped conscripts sent by Moscow to shore up Putin’s bungled invasion.

Several Ukrainian sources have acknowledged to me the diminutive despot might not be bluffing when he warns that he is prepared to use ‘all existing means’ to protect Russia’s ‘territorial integrity’ as the Kremlin ramps up its bellicose rhetoric.

Officials candidly admit their moves to retake Crimea present a serious risk, given its emotional and political significance to Putin.

‘That’s when he might use tactical nuclear weapons,’ said Anton Gerashchenko, an interior ministry adviser. Another source close to Zelensky said they fear Russia might respond with tactical nuclear weapons to close off the narrow land connection from Ukraine to Crimea.

‘But if they do that, this issue goes beyond Ukraine — it becomes something international,’ he said.

Even Kyrylo Budanov, Kyiv’s audacious head of military intelligence who is blamed by Moscow for overseeing recent attacks on Crimea, admits the threat is real since ‘our neighbour is sick’ — although he downplays the threat of a nuclear strike.

But while Ukraine’s wartime leaders acknowledge the severity of the risk, they believe they cannot give in to nuclear blackmail.

Otherwise their country’s torment will continue for many years as Moscow’s dictatorship tries to smash their democracy.

Intriguingly, however, one well-placed source told me that Ukraine would accept a peace deal based on Russia pulling back to the borders as they were before the full-scale invasion in February.

This would let Putin retain Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine seized later in 2014.

‘But if you write this, we’ll deny it,’ he said. Given Ukraine’s visceral hatred of the enemy following months of atrocities, it seems unlikely the country’s population would accept such a deal.

Besides, since the war started, Putin has claimed four more stolen regions of Ukraine for Russia, in addition to Crimea.

Ukrainian servicemen prepare a self-propelled howitzer to fire toward Russian positions on Wednesday

Ukrainian servicemen prepare a self-propelled howitzer to fire toward Russian positions on Wednesday

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