Ukraine: Expert reveals how Russia could trigger a nuclear war trends now

The humiliating collapse of Vladimir Putin's invasion force in Ukraine could be the final flash point needed to trigger a nuclear Armageddon that kills millions, a top military expert has chillingly warned.  

Ex-British diplomat Tim Willasey-Wilsey outlined how the Russian despot's barbaric war could descend into global carnage if his military collapses or mutinies in the face of unrelenting resistance from Kyiv's forces, triggering an apocalyptic scenario. 

The retired Foreign and Commonwealth Office director's comments come after a threat from one of Putin's closest allies, former President Dmitry Medvedev, who warned if Russia was beaten in Ukraine it would spark a nuclear war with the West. 

'It doesn't occur to any of the wretches to draw the following elementary conclusion: That the loss of a nuclear power in a conventional war could provoke a nuclear war,' Medvedev raged on Telegram. 'Nuclear powers have not lost major conflicts on which their fate depends. And this should be obvious to anyone.'  

The Kremlin doubled down on Medvedev's threat, with Moscow confirming his incendiary remarks were in full accordance with Russia's nuclear doctrine in yet another hint President Putin was prepared to use weapons of mass destruction.

But top military bosses have told MailOnline this hellish outcome, although possible, would be highly unlikely, with the former head of the Royal Navy, Admiral Lord Alan West saying: 'If Ukraine suddenly smash the Russians and advance into Russia that really does increase the likelihood of nuclear weapons being used... [but] it's extremely unlikely.' 

Here's how Mr Willasey-Wilsey claimed the Doomsday scenario could play out. 

Step one: Russia's forces collapse or mutiny 

When President Putin launched his barbaric invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, many believed he would storm to a quick victory.

But fearsome Ukrainian opposition combined with military incompetency from Russian forces and hi-tech weapons donated by the West have thrown Putin's lofty ambitions of overthrowing Ukraine's government into disarray.

Now, after already suffering a series of embarrassing defeats, Putin's army appears to be at a stalemate, with unconfirmed estimates claiming it has seen 100,000 troops killed or wounded since the war began. 

Mr Willasey-Wilsey (right) said such heavy losses could trigger a revolt among Putin's forces - which includes thousands of conscripts and prisoners.

'There may still be some Russian soldiers who believe their president’s myth about Ukraine being a Nazi state, but increasingly they must wonder why they are enduring considerable risk and awful conditions,' he wrote in an article for London-based defence think tank the Royal United Services Institute.

He claimed there had already been 'some evidence of near-mutiny' with the sudden evacuation of Kharkiv in the west bearing 'all the hallmarks of a rout, with troops abandoning their positions in a hurry and leaving equipment and personal effects behind'.

'For most of us in the West, a wholesale Russian collapse would be a cause for celebration, heralding a rapid end to the war and an alleviation of some of the economic effects which the conflict has engendered – in particular high energy and food costs. However, in reality, a mutiny would entail a few days of very significant risk,' he warned.

Step two: Ukrainian troops push to the edge of Donbas and Crimea 

And it would be these few days of 'very significant risk' where the fate of the globe could lie.  

With Russian resistance collapsing, Mr Willasey-Wilsey said the door would be wide open for Kyiv to advance and try to retake the Donbas and Crimea.

In this scenario, the retired diplomat claimed Moscow would do what it could to slow the Ukrainian push - which would include ramping up threats to use tactical nuclear weapons against President Volodymyr Zelensky's military. 

'The Moscow government would doubtless issue an ultimatum that Ukraine must not infringe into areas of Donbas under Russian control before February 24 and, above all, that it must not enter the Crimean Peninsula,' he added. 

'Moscow would make plain its willingness to use nuclear weapons to protect its territorial integrity.'

Step three: Zelensky warned to go no further by Macron and Scholz

But the Ukrainian advance could spook some western allies, warned Mr Willasey-Wilsey, whose career has seen him involved in the resolution of the civil wars in Angola and Mozambique, and the peace processes in the Middle East.

He predicts French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz would send 'urgent messages' to a confident President Zelensky, appealing for him not to retake territory previously in the Russian hands before it invaded.

This would include Crimea, annexed in 2014, and the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in the Donbas, where Russian-backed separatist forces have been battling for control for more than eight years.  

Britain could take a more 'robust' stance - 'encouraging Zelensky to retake all of Donbas' but to stay out of Crimea, unless backed by Nato of G7 allies. 

While US President Joe Biden would 'probably lean more towards' a similar position to the UK, 'conscious that Crimea is a much more sensitive issue' as the home of the Russian Black Sea Flee', added Mr Willasey-Wilsey, 

Step four: Zelensky turns a 'Nelsonian' 96-hour blind eye to pleas

So how could Zelensky react? Mr Willasey-Wilsey claims the Ukrainian leader might

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