If Putin wins in Ukraine, he will point his nuclear missiles at London... ... trends now
Russia shouldn’t have ended up this way. When Vladimir Putin was first elected, Russia had the support of the Western world, an educated population with a higher literacy rate than that of the United States, enormous natural resources, a fully built industrial base, and a rich cultural history.
If Russia had been properly governed, it might now have a modern and large economy on a par with those of Germany or Japan. Instead, Russia’s economy has been hollowed out and is equivalent in size to the state of New York’s.
This is because Putin and about 1,000 cronies have stolen at least $1 trillion from the Russian state over a 22-year period. This is money that should have been spent on hospitals, schools, roads, and other public services. Instead, it was spent on yachts, private planes and luxury villas, and deposited into foreign bank accounts.
In the early part of his reign, Putin blamed any hardships on his predecessor or forces beyond his control. But after more than two decades in power, Putin now owns all the deprivations that Russians have endured.
Lately, he has watched nearby dictators pay the price for similar levels of corruption and economic mismanagement. Putin knows that if he loses power, that will be it. For him, losing power is an existential threat.
When Vladimir Putin was first elected, Russia had the support of the Western world, an educated population with a higher literacy rate than that of the United States, enormous natural resources, a fully built industrial base, and a rich cultural history
He’s not going to sit back and wait for 500,000 enraged Russians to show up on Red Square demanding his resignation.
There would be no lucrative international speaking circuit to move on to, and no dignified exit. He would lose his fortune, he would go to jail, and he would probably be killed.
In order to retain power, Putin has done what every autocrat does when he’s worried about his people rising up against him. He pulls out the dictator’s playbook, creates a foreign enemy, and starts a war.
This is not the first time he’s done this. Shortly after taking power in Russia, he carpet-bombed the Chechen capital Grozny, killing 50,000 civilians. After that, his approval ratings shot through the roof. In 2008, he invaded Georgia.
Again, his approval ratings sky-rocketed. In 2014, following a rigged election and Putin’s widely perceived illegitimate return to the Russian presidency, he illegally annexed Crimea and invaded eastern Ukraine.
Again, his approval ratings shot up. Regrettably, none of these wars provoked any serious pushback from the West. There were no meaningful sanctions, Russia wasn’t cut off from the international financial system, no Western companies pulled out, and there was no military response.
Fast-forward to 2022. Following the pandemic, Putin’s popularity was once again fading. Since he couldn’t lose power, and he knew from experience that there would be no personal downside to another war, from his perspective, invading Ukraine made perfect sense.
He could shore up his base at home, and there would be no negative consequences for him. It was all upside.
Except that he miscalculated. First, he gravely misjudged the capabilities of his own war machine. The same corruption that led to this war also led to his military’s failure. Russia may have had a $70 billion military budget, but like everything else in Russia, 80 per cent of that had been stolen.
Officers stripped parts from MiG fighter jets and sold them to the Indian Air Force; senior military personnel routinely stole enlisted men’s salaries; and enlisted men siphoned petrol from tanks and trucks, selling it in order to survive.
In order to retain power, Putin has done what every autocrat does when he’s worried about his people rising up against him
I even heard a story about a Ukrainian unit that offered Russian tank operators $25,000 cash to abandon their $2 million tanks – and some of the Russian soldiers were so desperate that they took them up on it.
Second, Putin misjudged the Western response. This would not be like his other foreign military adventures. This time, there has been a huge reaction. Sanctions imposed on Russia by the West have been deeper, broader, and more far-reaching than any other sanctions programme in modern history.
We’ve sent the Ukrainians money, weapons and intelligence. And Western companies have all but abandoned Russia as a place to do business.
Third, Putin completely misjudged the Ukrainians. They have taken this support and valiantly fought off Russia. They’ve turned Putin’s planned three-day war into a quagmire. More than 200,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded. Russia is pulling back from territory it previously seized.
Closer to home, hundreds of thousands of Russians have left the country to avoid being cannon fodder in Putin’s ill-conceived war. And Russia’s economy is suffering – $350 billion of Russian Central Bank Reserves have been frozen in the West, and dozens of Russia’s wealthiest oligarchs have had their assets frozen around the world.
I’m certain that at least half of those assets belong to Putin. The truth is that the war in Ukraine has exposed Putin. Now everyone is asking: How does this all end?
Policymakers, pundits and political scientists get paid to look at Putin’s speeches and writings in an attempt to figure this out. Some of these Kremlinologists declare that the war is about Putin’s reaction to Nato enlargement or an attempt to re-establish his idea of Russian greatness.
They then tell the world that if Ukraine were to make some concessions to Putin in these areas, there will
