Recent attacks spell doom for Putin and could see the break-up of Russia, ... trends now

Recent attacks spell doom for Putin and could see the break-up of Russia, ... trends now
Recent attacks spell doom for Putin and could see the break-up of Russia, ... trends now

Recent attacks spell doom for Putin and could see the break-up of Russia, ... trends now

In the dawn hours of May 3, Moscovites awoke to an unbelievable sight: Two suicide drones had somehow managed to penetrate the city's air defences and explode on the roof of the Kremlin itself.

Such an attack would have been unthinkable when Vladimir Putin declared war on Ukraine a year earlier, and yet it was only the beginning. Three weeks later, partisans began raiding Russia's borders and then a swarm of drones slammed into Moscow's wealthy suburbs.

In-fighting between Russia's military and Putin's warlords is now at fever pitch, Ukraine's counter-attack is looming, and an opposition politician even went so far as to call for Putin himself to be replaced on state TV earlier this week.

So, is this really the beginning of the end for Russia's tyrant? 'Yes,' believes Luke Coffey, an expert at the Hudson Institute think-tank in Washington - who adds that Putin's demise will be swiftly followed by the break-up of Russia itself.

'I agree [that] this is the beginning of the end of Putin - the trajectory now is towards Putin being ousted and the further breakup of the Russian Federation,' he said.

An opposition politician called for Putin to be replaced on state TV earlier this week. Pictured: Vladimir Putin meets with Eritrea's President at the Kremlin, May 31, 2023

An opposition politician called for Putin to be replaced on state TV earlier this week. Pictured: Vladimir Putin meets with Eritrea's President at the Kremlin, May 31, 2023

Two suicide drones managed to penetrate Moscow's air defences and explode on the roof of the Kremlin, May 3, 2023

Two suicide drones managed to penetrate Moscow's air defences and explode on the roof of the Kremlin, May 3, 2023

Russia as we know it today was born almost 500 years ago when the first Tsar, Ivan the Terrible, began conquering lands in the name of the Tsardom of Muscovy.

Over the next 200 years, the Tsardom expanded both into Europe and all the way across to the Pacific Ocean until it was renamed as the Russian Empire by Peter the Great.

The empire fell apart after the First World War and, after a series of revolutions, was replaced by the Soviet Union which itself collapsed in 1991 - from which modern-day Russia emerged. Mr Coffey believes that final collapse is not yet over.

He added: 'The Soviet Union is still collapsing. When historians write about [it], they will probably identify Feb '22 [the date of the Ukraine invasion] as the most significant moment of that collapse.

'The dust is still settling. I believe the 15 countries that emerged in 1991 [when the Soviet Union collapsed] was the safety glass breaking.

'The next round of shattering will be like a 150-year-old pane of glass breaking in an old house. It will shatter in dangerous ways and won't be easy to repair or fix.'

Mr Coffey believes the final break-up will begin with the decisive defeat of Russia in Ukraine. That outcome is inevitable, he argues, but is unwilling to say when it will be.

Many hope it will come after Ukraine's much-anticipated counter-attack this summer, but military experts have warned the war may yet have years to run.

A suspected Ukrainian drone appears to explode with a mushroom cloud near Usovo village, which is close to Vladimir Putin's official residence, May 2023

A suspected Ukrainian drone appears to explode with a mushroom cloud near Usovo village, which is close to Vladimir Putin's official residence, May 2023

Smoke rises over Russia's Belgorod region after Ukraine was purported to have attacked using drones, May 21

Smoke rises over Russia's Belgorod region after Ukraine was purported to have attacked using drones, May 21

A woman looks out of a window of a damaged apartment block following a reported drone attack in Moscow, Russia, May 30, 2023

A woman looks out of a window of a damaged apartment block following a reported drone attack in Moscow, Russia, May 30, 2023

Whenever Russia's defeat comes, Mr Coffey argues it will divide the country's elites into two groups.

The first will be hardliners who believe the war could have been won if only they were in charge. The other will be oligarchs desperate to stop the bloodshed and patch up relations with the West, if only to preserve their own wealth and power.

Either way, he reasons that Putin is

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