Humiliated, Putin's every instinct will be to launch a purge on his enemies, ... trends now
To understand how Putin will react to the indignity forced on him by the Wagner Group mutiny, it's worth bearing in mind two highly revealing encounters he had with a radio host called Alexei Venediktov, one of Russia's most independent-minded and perceptive media commentators.
At the first meeting, held just after the 2008 Russia-Georgia war, Venediktov sat down with Putin for two hours, drinking white wine and discussing the conflict. 'Then [Putin] says: 'Listen, you were a history teacher. What will they write about me in the school textbooks?' ' Venediktov recalls.
Initially thrown by the question, he recovers by trotting out some key events from Putin's first two terms in office.
Putin, obviously put out, says: 'That's all?' Six years later, in 2014, Venediktov — along with a gaggle of other editors — is invited to meet Putin in the wake of the annexation of Crimea.
Putin greets each person in turn and, when he reaches Venediktov, says: 'What about now?' Observing that Venediktov is completely at a loss, he says: 'The textbooks.'
The 24 hours that rocked Russia: Humiliated, Putin's every instinct will be to launch a purge on his enemies
In the early hours of the rebellion on Saturday morning, Putin made an emergency address to the nation and its tone was strikingly different to anything he has ever said before
To say the Russian leader is obsessed by his legacy is bit like saying Liverpool fans would quite fancy an away win over Manchester City. And so no one will be more resentful of the deal with the devil he was forced to agree on Saturday night to prevent the Wagner troops reaching Moscow.
In one sense Putin has won, insofar as he hasn't lost his throne and he's defused a full-scale civil war. But that victory has come at an enormous cost. Putin's signature stance has always been a macho swagger and his core appeal that of the ruthless tough guy ready to fight Russia's enemies wherever they might rear their ugly heads
Putin's bluster, doubtless, will continue. But the Wagner mutiny — and Putin's craven capitulation to the rebels' demands — have brought his credibility with the Russian people crashing down.
In the early hours of the rebellion on Saturday morning, Putin made an emergency address to the nation and its tone was strikingly different to anything he has ever said before.
Yes, he described Yevgeny Prigozhin — leader of the Wagner mercenaries — as a 'traitor' who had 'stabbed Russia in the back' but, in an unprecedented move, Putin felt forced to invoke the idea of Russian national unity.
'We fight for the lives and security of our people; for our sovereignty and independence; for the right to remain Russia, a state with a thousand-year history,' he said. 'This battle, where the fate of our people is being decided, requires all our forces to be united; unity, consolidation and responsibility.'
Gone was the downplaying of Russia's invasion of Ukraine as a 'special military operation' rather than a war. In Putin's new narrative, Russia is fighting for its life.
But the Wagner mutiny has brought Putin's credibility with the Russian people crashing down. Pictured: Private military company (PMC) Wagner Group servicemen pose with a local girl
'We will protect our people and state from any threats, including internal betrayal,' he vowed. 'What we're facing is precisely a betrayal.'
Yet just hours after speaking those words, Putin officially pardoned the 25,000 Wagner troops who had occupied the headquarters of the Russian Army's Southern Military District in Rostov-on-Don, and allowed their leader to be driven away to exile.
As Prigozhin's cortege made its way through the streets of Rostov, he was cheered by large
