Is Kevin McCarthy TOAST? Up to SEVEN Republicans plan to vote with Matt Gaetz ... trends now

Is Kevin McCarthy TOAST? Up to SEVEN Republicans plan to vote with Matt Gaetz ... trends now
Is Kevin McCarthy TOAST? Up to SEVEN Republicans plan to vote with Matt Gaetz ... trends now

Is Kevin McCarthy TOAST? Up to SEVEN Republicans plan to vote with Matt Gaetz ... trends now

House Democrats were clear on Tuesday they are not voting in any way, shape or form to save Kevin McCarthy's job as speaker as his future looks grim.

'We're not voting in any way that would help save Speaker McCarthy,' Rep. Pramila Jayapal said outside the House Democrats' meeting in the basement of the Capitol. 'Nobody trusts Kevin McCarthy, and why should they?'

McCarthy's fate looked grim as he said he will call a vote on Tuesday afternoo on a motion to oust him from the speakership. He made clear he will not cut a deal with Democrats to stay in power, setting up an unpredictable showdown after Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz move on Monday night to remove him from power.

Gaetz presented a 'motion to vacate,' a legislative manuever that would result in the ousting of the speaker if a majority of the House approves it. The vote could happen around 1:30 pm or 2 pm ET on Tuesday afternoon. 

If four Republicans defect and no Democrat helps McCarthy, he will lose. And up to seven GOP lawmakers have indicted they will go with Gaetz and vote against the speaker. 

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy will face a vote on his future on Tuesday afternoon

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy will face a vote on his future on Tuesday afternoon

What is a 'motion to vacate the chair' 

The rules of the House allow for any single lawmaker — Democrat or Republican — to make a 'motion to vacate the chair,' essentially an attempt to oust the speaker from that leadership post through a privileged resolution. 

Gaetz filed it on Monday evening and the House has two legislative days to vote on it. 

Next steps:  McCarthy allies will likely seek to block it by offering a 'motion to table'- or set aside - the resolution.

That is where Democrats can help save McCarthy, if they support the move to table the matter. 

Democrats don't have to vote yes to help McCarthy. They could simply vote present, or not show up at all, and that would lower the threshold McCarthy needs to block the motion. 

If McCarthy's allies fail to table the motion, the House would then move to a vote on removing McCarthy.

Again, Democrats could save him by voting in his support or just by voting present or being absent.

If Gaetz's motion succeeds, the speakership would be vacated and the House would then need to hold a new election. 

A speaker candidate would need to win a majority of votes from those lawmakers present and voting. In January it took McCarthy 15 rounds of votes to secure the speakership. 

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McCarthy, coming out a meeting with House Republicans on Tuesday morning, said he was confident he would stay as speaker. 

'We'll move through this,' he said. 'If I counted how many times someone wanted to knock me out, I would have been gone a long time ago.'

McCarthy holds a narrow majority in the House. If five Republicans vote to oust him, he would be out of the speakership.

But Democrats could prove his saving grace - if they wanted to. For Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries and his caucus it is a tough choice: save McCarthy and stay with the speaker they know or vote for his ouster and see who winds up with the votes from Republicans to be in the speaker's chair. 

Jeffries and McCarthy spoke on Monday night but neither offered details of the conversation.

McCarthy is prepared to face his fate head on. When he calls the 'motion to vacate' to the floor, his allies will likely seek to block it by offering a 'motion to table'- or set aside - the resolution.

That is where Democrats can help save McCarthy, if they support the move to table the matter. 

Democrats don't have to vote yes to help McCarthy. They could simply vote present, or not show up at all, and that would lower the threshold McCarthy needs to block the motion. 

Even if the motion to table fails, McCarthy doesn't have to immediately bring up Gaetz's motion to oust him, which could give him time to try and wrangle more votes to his side.

But he likely won't find them among Democrats

'This issue is is about Republican dysfunction,' Rep. Mark Takano said. 'We don't have an obligation to elect a Republican Speaker. But we don't have a particular obligation to also save this speaker. So there's not a commitment or a feeling that we need to do anything to save the speaker.'

'We're not here to keep Kevin McCarthy in power. This is their problem. If they have the votes to keep him, then so be it,' Representative Jim McGovern said.

Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger said of McCarthy: 'He has made his bed.' 

All of the Democrats said they were united behind their leader, Hakeem

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