Forecaster who hasn't missed a presidential prediction in 40 YEARS reveals how ... trends now
A forecaster who has successfully predicted every presidential winner for the last 40 years has revealed Robert F Kennedy Jr.'s prospects for this year's election.
Allan Lichtman, a professor of history at American University in Washington, DC, has quashed RFK's hopes of entering the White House.
He dismissed him as a 'third party candidate' who is likely to 'fade as it gets closer to the election.'
'It's not even clear how many ballots RFK junior is going to get,' he told Fox 5, describing why he does not see him as a threat to Biden's Democrat nomination.
Lichtman devised a system for predicting election outcomes, which he terms '13 Keys to the White House.' He recently said that 'a lot would have to go wrong' for Joe Biden to lose the White House to Donald Trump
Allan Lichtman, a professor of history at American University in Washington, DC , has quashed RFK's hopes of entering the White House
He dismissed RFK as a 'third party candidate' who is likely to 'fade as it gets closer to the election'
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He says his keys technique enables him 'to predict the outcome of the popular vote solely on historical factors and not the use of candidate-preference polls, tactics or campaign events.'
He judges candidates on 13 key criteria, and who ever wins more is his prediction to win the election.
One of the keys involves a third-party candidates. But, Lichtman dismissed Biden losing that key saying RFK's 8.5 percent polling is likely to fade as November draws near.
He also hit back at pundits who say Biden should step down to make way for a younger candidate, insisting the Democrat's 'only chance' of winning is with their incumbent running.
Despite polls showing Biden in trouble nationally and behind in several swing states, Lichtman believes its still in the president's favor to retain office, with two of his 13 keys - lack of serious primary challenge and incumbency - already in Biden's favor.
'That's two keys off the top,' he said. 'That means six more keys would have to fall to predict his defeat. A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose.'
However, he acknowledged the president has already lost two keys.
The first is mandate, after losing US House seats in 2022 and the second is charisma.
'He is no John F. Kennedy or Franklin Roosevelt,' Lichtman said. 'There are also four shaky keys which would have to fall to predict Biden's defeat.'
Among those are how he performs on foreign policy, social unrest and the threat posed by a third party challenger.
