Starmer's Labour 'are a shoo-in for victory in Blackpool South by-election' as ... trends now
Rishi Sunak is set for more misery with Labour confident of winning the Blackpool South by-election as vote counting got underway tonight.
Sir Keir Starmer's party are expected to gain the Lancashire constituency to add to a string of recent by-election victories over the Tories.
A result is expected in the early hours of Friday morning, but Labour sources were confident of a win as ballot papers arrived to be counted at Blackpool Sports Centre.
They said party activists had reported large numbers of former Tory voters saying they'd be voting Labour for the first time.
There was even the possibility of further humilation for the Prime Minister with Reform UK not ruling out the prospect of coming ahead of the Tories.
A senior Reform source told MailOnline there was a chance the party could sneak ahead of the Tories and take second place in the by-election.
Ballot boxes arrive at Blackpool Sports Centre as votes are counted in the Blackpool South by-election contest
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer pictured with his party's by-election candidate Chris Webb last month
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They described Labour as a 'shoo-in' for victory after the party's election 'machine' had descended on the Lancashire seat and the Tories had 'given up'.
But, asked about Reform's prospects of coming ahead of the Conservatives, the source said: 'If you'd have asked me yesterday, I'd have said no chance. Now I'm not 100 per cent certain.'
They added that the party had enjoyed a successful day at polling stations but faced a 'mountain' in trying to overcome postal ballots.
'We will be pleased if we do better than Wellingborough,' the source added, as they referred to the party's best-ever by-election result in February.
This saw Reform snatch 13 per cent of the vote share in the Northamptonshire seat, with the Tories winning 25 per cent.
Blackpool South has been held by the Tories for 57 of the 78 years it has existed as a parliamentary constituency.
Cabinet minister Chris Heaton-Harris accepted the seat was likely to be lost by the Tories.
The Northern Ireland Secretary said it was 'going to be a tough seat for us to hold' given the scandal which led to it.
He told the BBC: 'You are highly unlikely to be rewarded by the electorate. Electorates do not like by-elections being put on them because of a failing like that.
'From the very start I would have expected to lose Blackpool South.'
Labour chair Anneliese Dodds, the Labour Party chair, said the Blackpool South contest - held on the same day as council and mayoral elections across England - was the 'key election'.
She told Sky News: 'The key election when
