MAIL ON SUNDAY COMMENT: If the Tories hold their nerve, millions could still ... trends now

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Beware of conventional wisdom. It is meant to stop you from thinking, and so from acting, independently. For a long time now, political commentators who want to fit in with the crowd have been more or less assuming a Labour General Election victory. This assumption reveals itself in quirks of language, especially on the BBC.

For instance, if Rishi Sunak says he can still win, an 'impartial' news bulletin will report that he 'insists' he can, a verb clearly expressing doubt that he is right. Yet none of those who ceaselessly presume the outcome of the poll can possibly know it.

As quickly as pollsters develop methods that correct their past mistakes, new variables come into play. And the pollsters' language suggests much more movement than there actually is.

Take the 'enormous' 26 per cent 'swing' from Tory to Labour at the Blackpool South by-election. This makes it sound as if thousands are switching energetically from one party to the other. But few reports noted that the winning Labour vote was lower than it had been at the last General Election, when Labour failed to win the seat. Who mentioned that the turnout was down from 32,752 to 18,375? Can it be wise to draw firm conclusions without doing so?