Coronavirus hope! UK outbreak could end on September 30 according to model

DATA MODELLING from Singapore University of Technology innovation lab suggests the UK's coronavirus crisis could end on September 30.

PUBLISHED: 00:01, Sun, May 24, 2020 | UPDATED: 00:06, Sun, May 24, 2020

The lab has predicted end dates for the crisis in several other countries based on data. Singapore itself will be rid of the virus on July 19, by August 12 and the US by November 11 according to the modelling. The university, however, warned: "The model and data are inaccurate to the complex, evolving, and heterogeneous realities of different countries.


"Predictions are uncertain by nature. Readers must take any predictions with caution.


"Over-optimism based on some predicted end dates is dangerous because it may loosen our disciplines and controls and cause the turnaround of the virus and infection, and must be avoided."

Professor Carl Heneghan, of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at Oxford University told The Sun the daily death rate in the UK could hit zero in June.

He explained: "I think by the end of June we'll be looking at the data and finding it difficult to find people with this illness, if the current trends continue in the deaths.

uk coronavirus latestData modelling suggests the UK crisis could end on September 30 (Image: GETTY)

matt hancockThe UK recorded an extra 282 deaths in the most recent update, stock (Image: GETTY)

"But we will continue to have these sporadic up and downs for about four to six weeks.

"People shouldn't panic or get out of context if suddenly, say, we've had no deaths for four days, and now we've had eight or ten, because we'll see that as you go down lower numbers, a bit more variation in the actual data."

Dr Jason Oke, an Oxford University statistician added: “Looking at trends over time, still there is a steady decline in deaths and if you were tempted to project that trend into the future you would have to be cautious.

“They (deaths) are dropping at about 30 a day. And the last day the ONS reports it’s just below 400 deaths.

READ MORE: Britain's Got Talent delay: When will live shows be on? Date revealed

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