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It is easy to fall into the trap of thinking about the knockout phase of a World Cup before the group stage has started.
Even England’s players had one eye on a potential last-eight meeting with Germany. ‘We could meet them in the quarters if things go to plan,’ Georgia Stanway said on the eve of the tournament.
Two weeks in and Germany are heading home, leaving England with a smoother path to the semi-finals than they could ever have imagined.
Germany are one of three top-10 ranked teams who have been eliminated. Brazil and Canada are the others and both were on England’s side of the draw.
If England can get past Nigeria (40th) in this round, they face a quarter-final against Colombia (25th) or Jamaica (43rd). From there, a semi-final against France or Australia looks likely — but this World Cup has taught us to expect the unexpected.
England’s players had one eye on a potential last-eight meeting with Germany two weeks ago
But Germany are heading home, leaving England with a smoother path to the semi-finals
That a team such as Morocco, who are ranked 72 in the world, can progress to the knockouts at the expense of a super power such as Germany is the greatest proof that expanding this tournament from 24 to 32 teams was justified.
England will not be thinking beyond their last-16 game and they will be wary of the threats Nigeria pose. There is nothing to lose for the African side. They have already shown they can compete with higher-ranked nations, having beaten Australia and drawn with Olympic champions Canada in their group.
The pressure is on the Lionesses and they cannot afford to be complacent. What is different about this tournament to previous ones is that the lower-ranked nations are tougher to break down.
They are better at defending, more tactically astute and can frustrate the bigger teams by utilising a mid-block. This means there is little space in the middle of the pitch, which makes it difficult to play through them.
This was a problem for England against Haiti and to a certain extent against Denmark. In both games they had more than 70 per cent possession but were forced to go out wide because the central areas were congested.
England won't be thinking beyond their last-16 game vs Nigeria and know the threat they pose
The pressure is on Sarina Wiegman’s side and they cannot afford to be complacent
This in turn made it harder for England’s centre forward Alessia Russo to get on the ball.
Sarina Wiegman’s solution was to change formation for the final group game against China, deploying wing-backs and two strikers to force the opposition out of their narrow set-up.
Germany faced a similar problem against South Korea but were unable to combat it.
‘It’s a sign of the times that coaches more flexible in their tactical set-ups and making in-game adjustments will be more successful,’ explained former USA boss Jill Ellis, head of FIFA’s technical study group.
‘Gone are the days when you can just stick with what you’ve been doing. With Germany it didn’t seem like there was an adjustment early enough in the game. South Korea were very, very good in their organised block and tough to break down. So how do you combat that to take advantage?’
England must not underestimate their opponents, but equally they should see this as the best opportunity they have had to reach a World Cup final.
‘I don’t think we fear anyone,’ said England goalkeeper Mary Earps. ‘Our qualities have shown through in however many years we’ve been playing together, so I think we’re in a good spot.
England goalkeeper Mary Earps says they are in a 'good spot' and don't 'fear anyone'
‘The proof is what happens come game day, and the most important thing is that
