By Joe Middleton For Mailonline
Published: 02:02 GMT, 27 March 2020 | Updated: 02:18 GMT, 27 March 2020
New research shows that if Britain follows the same trajectory as China then 5,700 people, not 20,000, are expected to die - and the peak with be a week on Sunday.
A new paper by Tom Pike, from Imperial College London, compares deaths for confirmed Covid-19 cases in China with eight other countries - all of which have implemented some form of social distancing measures.
The estimates for the UK - if it follows the same trajectory as China - shows the UK could have 5,700 deaths, and the peak would be 260 fatalities on April 5.
The estimates for the UK - if it follows the same