A punter studies the form guide at a previous Melbourne Cup Carnival meeting
Jared Timms - Neds Bookmakers
#1 Red Cardinal
There are several reasons why Red Cardinal looms as a potential Melbourne Cup winner. He is trained by Andreas Wohler, who prepared Protectionist to win the Melbourne Cup in 2014. This horse has only had three starts in 2017 and his form has been outstanding – He's won two races at the two-mile distance of the Melbourne Cup in Germany and the United States.
Track conditions vary greatly in those two countries, so that suggests that Red Cardinal is capable of adapting to his surroundings extremely well. He'll be ridden by 2016 Melbourne Cup winner Kerrin McEvoy, who is in a rare vein of form himself and who has experienced plenty of top-level success already this spring. With the appropriate luck in running, Red Cardinal will be extremely difficult to beat and boasts great odds.
Humidor gave Winx the biggest scare of her undefeated streak in the Cox Plate and I simply cannot ignore that run. Humidor tends to improve with a lot of racing under his belt and he will contest the Melbourne Cup as seventh point-of-call since August.
The big question mark hovers over whether or not he will race well at two miles – a distance he is yet to see, but his breeding, particularly on his maternal side generally produces horses that perform well at longer trips. Humidor's ability to settle in running and his trademark late sprint suggests that he can be right in the finish of the Melbourne Cup.
Marmelo is a horse that has performed extremely well in big European races this year and is also proven at the distance of the Melbourne Cup – perhaps the most important form indicator for the race. Marmelo was faced with a wall of horses when he rounded onto the final straight in the Caulfield Cup, but he flew home after finding clear running and showed all the signs of a horse that will be much better at a longer distance.
As horses progress further into their campaigns, they tend to improve and I am expecting Marmelo to carry the most