Opta's supercomputer reveals which clubs have the easiest and HARDEST fixtures in the Champions League's new format... and it's bad news for one of the English sides

Opta's supercomputer reveals which clubs have the easiest and HARDEST fixtures in the Champions League's new format... and it's bad news for one of the English sides
By: dailymail Posted On: September 16, 2024 View: 150

  • Liverpool face a nightmare draw culminating in an Anfield showdown with Real 
  • Meanwhile, Celtic are judged to have easiest draw in new-look league format 
  • SOCCER A-Z: Listen now wherever you get your podcasts, or watch on YouTube. New episodes every Wednesday 

Liverpool face one of the toughest Champions League draws this season, according to Opta's supercomputer, with Arne Slot's men set for trips to Milan and Leipzig before welcoming holders Real Madrid to Anfield.

The stats boffins have been crunching the numbers and running the algorithms ahead of this year's new-look format and have spat out a comprehensive analysis of each side's fixtures. 

This season's instalment will have a slightly different flavour to previous years, with the traditional group-stage format canned in favour of a league of 36 teams.

Each side will play eight fixtures against eight different teams, half at home and half away, to determine their position in the table.

The changes do not end there, however. This season is set to see the introduction of a brand new play-off phase, with the sides finishing ninth to 16th in the table to battle it out for a spot in the last 16 along with the top eight clubs. 

Liverpool face one of the toughest Champions League draws, Opta's supercomputer shows
Pep Guardiola's Manchester City face matches away to Sporting Lisbon, Juventus and PSG after kicking off their campaign with a home tie against Serie A champions Inter Milan
Arsenal have some fiendish fixtures to watch out for with trips to Atalanta and Inter Milan
Champions League new boys Aston Villa, playing in the tournament for the first time since it was rebranded, have been helped out with what is judged to be a simpler set of fixtures

Much is dependent, of course, on the draw presented to each European powerhouse and it's bad news for one former finalist. 

Paris Saint-Germain are judged to have the nastiest set of fixtures of the lot with the French team gearing up for away matches against Arsenal and Barcelona, as well as home ties against Atletico Madrid and Premier League winners Manchester City. 

Liverpool face the second toughest draw, while poor Sparta Prague have trips to the English champions and German winners Bayer Leverkusen to look forward to.

Opta's supercomputer also predicted the teams with the easiest set of fixtures in the league stage and it's good news for Celtic fans.

Brendan Rodgers' men have the least challenging route to the last 16, with home matches against Slovan Bratislava and Young Boys giving the Scottish outfit a shot at an unlikely march into the second round. 

Former winners Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund and Barcelona have also been gifted some of the simplest sets of matches and will expect to be cruising into the last 16.

In terms of the remaining English sides, Arsenal have some fiendish fixtures to watch out for, with trips to Atalanta and Inter Milan coming either side of a crunch tie against PSG at the Emirates.

Their bitter Premier League title rivals Man City don't have it much easier. 

Brendan Rodgers' Celtic side have the least challenging route to the last 16 according to Opta
Paris Saint-Germain are judged to have the nastiest set of fixtures of the lot with the French team gearing up for away matches against Arsenal and Barcelona during the league phase
Poor Sparta Prague have trips to the English champions and German winners to deal with

Pep Guardiola's men face matches away to Sporting Lisbon, Juventus and PSG after kicking off their campaign with a home tie against Serie A champions Inter Milan.

And new boys Aston Villa, playing in the tournament for the first time since it was rebranded, have been helped out with what is judged to be a simpler set of fixtures.

The 1982 European Cup winners have matches against Young Boys, Club Brugge and Bologna to look forward to as Opta calculate that they have the sixth easiest draw. 

Meanwhile Man City are being backed as firm favourites for a second Champions League trophy, with the supercomputer giving Pep Guardiola's side a whopping 25 per cent chance of winning the competition.

The Premier League champions have been judged to finish in the semi-finals in more than half of the scenarios (55 per cent) and, at 95.2 per cent, are almost guaranteed to make it out the league stage.

They pip last year's victors Real Madrid to the title with England star Jude Bellingham set to miss out on consecutive wins.

Perhaps surprisingly, Italian side Inter are third favourites with a 58.6 per cent chance of making the quarter-finals and a handy 10.9 per cent chance of taking home the trophy.

Simone Inzaghi's outfit won Serie A at a canter last season and beat out a number of recent European champions in Opta's list.

Real Madrid's Nacho lifts the Champions League trophy after the 2024 final against Dortmund
Perhaps surprisingly, Italian side Inter Milan are third favourites with a 58.6 per cent chance
Three German sides feature in the 10 teams with the highest likelihood of success, with Red Bull Leipzig a shock inclusion among the favourites to lift the illustrious trophy next summer

Arsenal complete the top four, despite not reaching the semi-finals of the competition since 2008-09. Mikel Arteta's side, who are fiercely vying out with City for the Premier League title, are victorious in 6.3 per cent of scenarios.

Making up an English trio in the top seven are Liverpool who, under new boss Slot, will be hoping to repeat their success of five years ago when they beat Tottenham in the final.

Three German sides feature in the ten teams with the highest likelihood of success, with Red Bull Leipzig a shock inclusion among the favourites.

Marco Rose's men came fourth in the Bundesliga last season and were knocked out in the Champions League in the last 16.

Girona are also surprisingly expected to make the second round after reaching the highest echelons of European football for the first time.

The Spanish side were cleared to compete in the tournament despite belonging to City Football Group, the same holding company which owns Man City.

It's bad news, however, for Slovan Bratislava with the Slovakian outfit given a fat zero per cent chance of winning a shock Champions League trophy, and just a 1.2 per cent chance of making it to the next round.

Aston Villa continued their good start to the Premier League season with a comeback win over Everton but are not backed to do well in Europe by the boffins. 

Girona are also surprisingly expected to make the second round after reaching the highest echelons of European football for the first time following a sensational campaign last term
It's bad news for Slovan Bratislava with the Slovakians given a zero per cent chance of winning
This year's competition kicks off on Tuesday, with Aston Villa in action away at Young Boys

Opta's predicted 2024-25 Champions League winners

 

1. Manchester City (25.3% chance of winning)

2. Real Madrid (18.2%)

3. Inter (10.9%)

4. Arsenal (6.3%)

5. Bayer Leverkusen (5.4%)

6. Barcelona (5.2%)

7. Liverpool (4.2%)

8. Bayern Munich (4.1%)

8. Paris Saint-Germain (4.1%)

10. Red Bull Leipzig (2.4%)

10. Borussia Dortmund (2.4%)

12. Sporting Lisbon (2.2%)

12. Atletico Madrid (2.2%)

14. Atalanta (1.7%)

15. Juventus (1.1%)

16. Girona (1%)

AND

22. Aston Villa (0.2%)

28. Celtic (0%) 

The Midlands side have been handed a one-in-three (32.3 per cent) chance of progressing through the league stage. 

Opta's findings were calculated by simulating the tournament 10,000 times and using the results to form percentages.

This year's revamped competition kicks off on Tuesday, with Villa in action away at Young Boys and Liverpool facing a tough visit to AC Milan.

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