Cross your fingers that the American electors will at least deliver a clear choice for their president – whatever that choice may be.

If they don’t, it will be a bumpy ride not just for global politics, but for all of us as investors in the world’s dominant economy. All of us? Yes absolutely, for we are all in one way or another affected by what will happen there.

Many Britons will be direct investors, with the lucky ones owning some shares in the high tech giants such as Apple, Microsoft and Amazon that have shot up over the past couple of years.

Anyone with a private sector pension will have some assets in the US.

The American market accounts for 60 per cent of global equities and every balanced portfolio will own some shares there.

Beyond that, the dollar anchors world trade and investment.

If inflation is also better controlled, then that would help hold down bond yields.

US treasury securities – IOUs issued by the American government – are the main investment held as reserves in the world’s central banks. 

And, of course, the US is not only the world’s largest economy, well clear of China, but is increasing its lead over Europe.

So what will happen? It makes no sense to try to predict the outcome or to consult opinion polls – the fog hanging over the election is impenetrable. The message from the financial markets is equally confused.

The betting odds on balance favour a Trump victory, but they were wrong in 2016 when he was the underdog. The money then was on Hillary Clinton.

Conversely, a strong equity market – the S&P 500 is up 10 per cent since August – has in the past signalled that the incumbent party would win the presidency. Conventional wisdom is that markets like continuity.

But the received view now is that a Trump win would be better for equities and worse for bonds, whereas a Harris presidency would be the other way round. 

The argument is that the Republicans would be more pro-business than the Democrats, and that the tax cuts they have promised would, in the short run at least, boost economic growth and corporate profits. 

The downside would be higher inflation, leading to higher interest rates. The emphasis under the Democrats would be on boosting government spending.

Whichever of the pair moves into the White House, the Federal deficit will rise and that is a profound concern. But it would climb a bit less under the Democrats. 

The idea that Trump would be good for shares and Harris for bonds is a neat one, but I would distrust it for two reasons.

The first is that it is too neat. The thousands of clever analysts on Wall Street are great at creating arguments that appear to explain what is happening to markets. 

But if you look back at their record of predicting, rather than explaining, even the best are only right about half of the time.

The second reason for caution is that there may be no clear outcome this week. This should surely be the biggest concern for all of us. Chaos is rarely good for investors. Were that to happen, there would eventually be a settlement. 

The quote attributed to Winston Churchill that ‘Americans can always be trusted to do the right thing, once all other possibilities have been exhausted’ would hold true.

But a few weeks of uncertainty would undermine the status of both the dollar and of US assets, as the best safe haven for global savings. There could well be a sharp bear market in equities and a surge in bond yields.

There is a further dimension: global politics. If there is no clear election outcome, it would create a window of opportunity to test the US response to some kind of offensive against American interests.

It is pointless to speculate what that might be. At the same time, it would be silly not to be aware that global financial confidence is already quite fragile right now.

Witness the record price of the ultimate safe haven in troubled lines, that of gold. It was trading just shy of $2,750 an ounce last night, close to its all-time high, and up nearly 40 per centon a year ago.

There could be turmoil on the bond markets whoever is declared the winner, but the chances of that are vastly higher if the margin of victory turns out to be really tight.

Given all these uncertainties, how do you explain something else: that US equities hit record highs last month? There are two possible answers to this, one positive and one negative. 

The positive answer is there is a global conviction that, whatever happens to American politics, the economy will continue to prosper.

The inventiveness, drive, scale, flexibility, energy of US companies will combine to ensure that it will carry on dominating the world. The US economy is bigger than its politics – and better too.

The negative response is another question: where else do you put your money? Do you really want to invest your savings in China? Europe isn’t going to deliver much growth over the next few years, though some companies will be all right.

Here in the UK, it would be nice to expect a better economic performance, but last week’s Budget has put a dampener on that. 

The emerging economies will play a bigger role in the global economy over the next 20 years, but investor returns have been very disappointing in recent times.

You see the point. There are good reasons for investors to worry about the US: shares may well be over-valued and bond markets will face real uncertainty.

However, as the US investment guru Warren Buffett wrote in his 2022 shareholders’ letter: ‘In its brief 232 years of existence, there has been no incubator for unleashing human potential like America. 

Despite some severe interruptions, our country’s economic progress has been breathtaking. Our unwavering conclusion: Never bet against America.’