Met Office is SLAMMED over its 'confusing' yellow alerts ahead of Storm Bert - as experts claim the agency underplayed weather that left four dead

Met Office is SLAMMED over its 'confusing' yellow alerts ahead of Storm Bert - as experts claim the agency underplayed weather that left four dead
By: dailymail Posted On: December 11, 2024 View: 179

Last month, Storm Bert swept through the country, leaving at least four people dead and hundreds of homes flooded.

However, most of the country was only placed under a yellow warning - the Met Office's lowest warning level.

The Met Office has now been slammed for its confusing weather warnings ahead of the storm's arrival. 

Experts claim that the weather agency underplayed the danger, leaving many unprepared to face extremely fast winds and widespread flooding.

The weather agency has already faced strong criticism for not issuing a red warning in Wales where the effects of the storm were most severe.

But it has now been revealed that the Met Office was warned as early as April that the current warning system might not be effective.

The issue was raised at a meeting of the Public Weather Service Customer Group (PWSCG), an independent body which ensures weather services act on the public's behalf.

The meeting minutes show the Met Office had seen evidence suggesting people did not heed yellow weather warnings almost eight months before the deadly storm hit.

The Met Office has been slammed for issuing confusing weather warnings ahead of the deadly Storm Bert which swept the country in November leaving hundreds flooded and five dead. Pictured: People pour water out of their garden in Pontypridd, Wales after storm Bert
Despite the significant damage caused by the storm in Wales and Scotland, most of the country only received a yellow warning - the lowest of the Met Office's three-tiered system

In the April meeting between the Met Office and the PWSCG, members presented evidence from a survey about yellow warnings carried out in Northern Ireland.

Stefan Laeger, a flood duty manager at the Environment Agency (EA), presented the information.

The meeting minutes say: 'SL [Stefan Laeger] noted the importance of the narrative both before and after an event and to consider that in a low likelihood, high impact event the perception might be that they think it will not happen.'

The Met Office's current three-tiered warning system was introduced in 2011 specifically to inform the public about the risks of extreme weather events.

The risk level reflects the likely impact of the weather event, meaning that the same storm would be given a lower warning in Scotland than it would in the South of England where people are less prepared.

The issue is that the warning level is calculated according to a 'matrix' which takes into account both how severe the impact could be and how likely those impacts are.

This means that extremely severe but quite unlikely outcomes can be given yellow or amber warnings even when they have the same destructive potential as a red warning event.

That becomes a massive problem because the public does not understand that a yellow warning can be just as dangerous as a red warning.

Because the Met Office scale appraises both potential impact and likelihood, uncertain but devastating outcomes can generate yellow warnings. Since people don't know this, the public can underestimate the danger of a storm warning
Meeting minutes reveal that the Met Office was warned that yellow warnings were misunderstood in April, more than seven months before Storm Bert left hundreds flooded. Pictured: mobile homes flooded in Northampton, England after Storm Bert
Experts have criticised the Met Office for downplaying the risk of the storm, leaving some unprepared to face the intense rainfall and strong winds. Pictured: a man pours water out of his shop in Pontypridd, one of the worst affected areas

How does the Met Office issue severe weather warnings?

The Met Office is the body responsible for issuing extreme weather warnings in the UK.

Each warning contains the type of weather to expect, advice on how to stay safe, and a colour-coded warning level.

Each warning is ranked on an ascending scale of yellow, amber, and red.

This reflects the likely impact for a given area in terms of property damage, travel delays, impact on utilities, or danger to life.

However, this also takes into account how likely the impacts are.

That means more likely but less severe impacts might get a higher rating than an outside chance of severe damage.

Hannah Cloke, a hydrologist at the University of Reading, told The Telegraph: 'There is an issue if people aren't understanding those warnings.

'If people are misinterpreting them to mean you don't need to take any action, then we have a serious problem.'

What these minutes show is that the Met Office was well aware that people don't think yellow warnings precede 'high impact' events before issuing a yellow warning for Storm Bert.

During the meeting, the Met Office also revealed that it was already conducting a review into yellow warnings 'looking at the action taken and the difference in how they are used by responders and the public'. 

When Storm Bert hit, the country was pummelled by 82mph winds, snow and a month's worth of rain, leaving at least five people dead in its wake.

More than 400 flood alerts or warnings were issued across Britain, including 206 alerts and 157 warnings in England; and 29 alerts and ten warnings in Wales.

Among the dead was Brian Perry, 75, a pensioner from South Wales who was reported missing after setting out to take his dog for a walk.

After the storm passed, Welsh politicians strongly criticised the Met Office for not issuing a red warning in areas where up to 300 properties were flooded.

Storm Bert killed five including 75 year-old Brian Perry (pictured) from Trefriw, Wales who was found dead after setting out for a walk with his dog

Councillor Andrew Morgan, leader of Rhondda Cynon Taf county borough council, said he was 'amazed' that only a yellow weather warning had been issued.

A Met Office spokesperson told MailOnline: 'Storm Bert was well forecast, with first signs of disruptive weather signalled a week ahead and the first Severe Weather Warnings issued on Wednesday 20 November.

'Numerous Severe Weather Warnings were issued by the Met Office ahead of the system reaching the UK.'

Mr Morgan also says that residents were not given a flood warning as early as they could have been.

He claims that the environment body Natural Resources Wales (NRW) had data on high river levels for more than an hour before residents were alerted.

However, it is important to note that flood warnings are distinct to the severe weather warnings issued by the Met Office.  

A review is now being conducted into the decision-making process that led to the yellow warning being issued and how the Met Office worked with other agencies during the leadup.

Likewise, the Parliamentary Environmental Audit Committee (EAC) announced an inquiry into England's flood resilience.

Storm Bert triggered 400 flood alerts or warnings across Britain including 206 alerts and 157 warnings in England. Local councils complained that these alerts came too late for residents to prepare

Toby Perkins, Labour MP for Chesterfield and chair of the committee says: 'It is often the case that flood victims have had several false alerts before they are flooded and so the system of warnings will play an important part in the Environmental Audit Committee's inquiry.

'We need to better understand the accuracy of flood warnings and whether Government is capable of improving them.'

The Met Office spokesperson says: 'Our National Severe Weather Warning Service provides responders, emergency services and the public with a way to understand both the likelihood and severity of forecast impactful weather. 

'The service consistently achieves its accuracy targets and reaches huge numbers of people enabling them to prepare for severe weather.'

The Met Office severe weather warnings explained

Yellow Warning

  • Many yellow warnings are issued for events that are likely to cause some low-level impacts such as travel disruption.
  • In these cases, most people will be able to continue with their daily routine.
  • Other yellow warnings are issued when the weather could bring much more severe impacts to the majority of people but those impacts are less certain.
  • The Met Office says it is important to read the contents of the warning to see what it means for you.

Amber Warning

  • These reflect an increased likelihood of being directly impacted by severe weather which could disrupt your plans.
  • This means there is the possibility of travel delays, road and rail closures, power cuts and the potential risk to life and property.
  • In the case of an amber warning, you should consider changing your plans to protect yourself and your property.
  • You may want to consider the impact of the weather on your family and your community and whether there is anything you need to do ahead of the severe weather to minimise the impact. 

Red Warning

  • The highest level of warning means that dangerous weather is highly likely.
  • It is very likely that there will be a risk to life, with substantial disruption to travel, energy supplies, and possibly widespread damage to property and infrastructure.
  • If you have not already done so you should take action immediately to keep yourself and others safe.
  • Avoid travelling where possible and follow the advice of emergency services.

Source: The Met Office  

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