Intelligence analysts have revealed why they believe Russia is behind the mysterious drones invading the skies over New Jersey. 

US Army general Darryl Williams described a situation that mirrors what has unfolded at American/NATO bases across Europe that are known to supply arms to Ukraine.

And retired police lieutenant and intelligence analyst Tim McMillan told DailyMail.com that the descriptions of the UFOs in Jersey 'sound exactly like Russian Orlan-10 drones' — secretive craft that fly in packs of three to five.

Lt McMillan and other experts have noted that the New Jersey sightings circled around Picatinny Arsenal, home of the US Army's CCDC Armaments Center, which is responsible for manufacturing and supplying Ukraine with artillery ammunition.

These experts suggest that Russia could be carrying out an intelligence-gathering mission known as 'ferreting', meant to intentionally trigger and test their foreign rival's airspace defense procedures and response time. 

Or Russia could simply be spying on allies of Ukraine who are aiding the fight against Russia's occupation of its southeastern regions, including Donetsk and Mariupol.

While experts could not rule out a theory that Iran was behind the attacks, argued by NJ Congressman Jeff Van Drew, but denied by the Pentagon, White House officials have long noted that Russia and Iran collaborate on military drone development.

'Russia has been very aggressive and reckless with its responses to Western support of Ukraine,' Lt McMillan told DailyMail.com. 'This isn't something I see discussed in US media, but it's well documented and openly discussed here in Europe.'

The first New Jersey drone sightings appeared over the US Army's Picatinny Arsenal on November 18, but reports to varying levels of credibility have now spread to at least 12 counties throughout the Garden State. 

Officials have received reports of craft flying of 'water reservoirs, electric transmission lines, rail stations, police departments, and military installations' in recent weeks, according to Florham Park, NJ Police Chief Joseph J Orlando. 

But those earliest and most credible sightings above Picatinny, according to Lt McMillan, are most worth focusing on. 

'Picatinny Arsenal,' as Lt McMillan told DailyMail.com, is 'home of the US Army's CCDC Armaments Center, which is responsible for manufacturing and supplying Ukraine with 155mm artillery ammunition.'

Republican Rep Jeff Van Drew has claimed that Iran is behind the drones in New Jersey, telling reporters that the nation parked a 'mothership' off the East Coast.

But experts said the New Jersey sightings more accurately match the description of Russian drones known as 'Orlan-10.'

The Orlan-10 craft comes with 'standard positional lighting' — a red light on the left (port) wingtip, a green light on the right (starboard) wingtip, and white taillights, similar to the lights seen on ordinary aircraft and Jersey's 'mystery drones.' 

The brazen New Jersey night flights, as Lt McMillan explained, greatly resemble troubling drone flights above industrial parks surrounding Germany's Brunsbüttel harbor from this past August. 

'Here in Germany, we've had similar drone incidents over military bases training and equipping Ukrainian troops,' Lt McMillan added, saying the ones in New Jersey 'sound exactly like Russian Orlan-10 drones.'

The Russian craft fly in packs for three to five, similar to what has been reported in New Jersey.  

At least one model contains optical and thermal vision cameras, but the Orlan-10 fleet's full capabilities are not well known publicly, despite a few crashes in Europe.

Packs of Orlan-10s, Lt McMillan noted, often come 'with each one running a different package like EW [electronic warfare] and data relays.' 

The comment matches some reports in New Jersey, where one family in Morris County reported a drone that interfered with their car's dashboard clock.

Russia has roughly 11 different versions of the Orlan-10, which have been produced at a rate of nearly 1,000 per year since 2018, according to manufacturer Special Technology Center. 

The drones can fly between 4,000 and 5,000 feet in the air for reconnaissance, but up to 20,000 feet if necessary.

Formerly a police investigator in Garden City, Georgia, Lt McMillan served as an intelligence analyst for a law firm before moving to Germany. 

He has since become a prolific investigative reporter on military cases of unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP), including a spate of 'mystery drones' that plagued Sweden in 2022, curiously timed to its decision to 'deepening its partnership with NATO.'

In an article for The Debrief, a publication Lt McMillan co-founded, he described two possible reasons Russia might engage in such-less-than secret drone flights. 

One was 'ferreting,' the military term for intentionally triggering and testing a foreign rival's airspace defenses. 

A second, more unique to Russia is called 'reflexive control,' a psychological warfare tactic intended to influence the general public of a rival nation, for instance, to weaken popular support for their home government's military aid or policies abroad.

Speaking at a US Army event this past October, Jack Watling, a ground warfare expert with the Royal United Services Institute in London, corroborated the reports coming in that described Russian-backed, covert 'sabotage across Europe.'

'We have had Russian weapons fly through NATO airspace on their route to Ukraine multiple times,' Watling said, according to a report by Stars and Stripes.

On Tuesday, Congress asked an FBI assistant director with the bureau's Critical Incident Response Group, Robert Wheeler, if these drones posed a threat to public safety.

'There is nothing that is known that would lead me to say that,' Wheeler told Congress, 'but we just don't know. And that's the concerning part.'

The Biden administration has also pushed back on claims by Republican lawmakers that the drones are being operated by any one of America's foreign adversaries — including claims that the flights originate from an Iranian 'mothership' offshore.

'No indication at this time that it's a foreign adversary or a foreign actor,' The White House's national security communications advisor John Kirby told NewsNation's Kellie Meyer. 'The FBI is looking at this. DOJ is looking at this.'

'I know the Department of Defense, when it affects or comes near a military base, they're looking at this,' Kirby added. 'In some cases, the investigation has led to a revelation that it's actually manned aircraft and not drones at all.'

'So, I can't tell you definitively exactly what we're talking about here,' he said. 'So each one is going to be a little bit different.'

In New Jersey, the drones' talent for evading their federal and local law enforcement pursuers has frustrated Governor Phil Murphy and government investigators alike.  

'We're not getting good characteristics of the drone,' the head of the Ocean County, NJ Sheriffs Office drone unit, Sergeant Kevin Fennessy said.

And, in fact, NJ officials and residents have also seen drones that do not resemble fixed-wing aircraft deepening the mystery of the craft's origins and intent.

'We had one the other night that, as we're watching it, it just shuts the lights off and it's gone,' Sgt Fennessy told The New York Times, 'pure darkness.'

But the drone unit chief did tell the paper that he estimates that the mysterious drones are roughly double the size of the drones in his fleet: not too far from the Russian Orlan-10's max capacity of 33lbs as compared to most commercial drones used by law enforcement.

Ocean County Sheriff Michael Mastronardy told Asbury Park Press on Monday that his team estimates the invading drones are three to four feet long, although another law enforcement agency has reported one drone that was as large as eight feet long.

Despite federal and state officials' assurances, other local police, like the chief of police for the New Jersey borough of Florham Park, are convinced that the drones pose a serious threat.

'Their presence appears nefarious in nature,' Police Chief Orlando said.